Диплом Дефолт в России ФРАГМЕНТЫ ДЛЯ ОЗНАКОМЛЕНИЯ

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Содержание:

Introduction
Ch. 1. The characteristics of financial crisis situations
Ch. 2. The identificators of currency crisis
Ch. 3. The essence of financial crisisies of 1997-1998
Ch. 4. The Russian financial crisis of 1998 be seen from an exchange rate point of view
Ch. 5. What effects did the Russian financial crisis of 1998 have on the exchange rate, and what were the causes of the crisis
Ch. 6. Could the Russian financial crisis of 1998 have been forseen, and how did it affect the exchange rate during the period of the crisis
Ch. 7. Recommendations
Conclusion
Bibliography
INTRODUCTION

Actuality and Scientific Value. The decade of the 1990s was certainly marked by a rather unusual number of financial and economic crises with the Asian Crisis of 1997 and the Russian Crisis of 1998 as perhaps the most prominent such cases. These crises naturally renewed interest in the study of the relevant causes, consequences, and cures for such episodes. In the wake of these recent events, one very important question has been the need and the feasibility of predicting such cri-ses.
Purpose of Research. The given paper will be aimed at deriving lessons from the Russian financial crisis through examining the root causes of macroeconomic and financial sector indicators spanning the period 1997-1999.
Subject of Research - the financial crisis in Russia of 1998.
Objects of Research. The significant variables of Russian economy at 1998 state - foreign direct investment, inflation, world oil prices, real interest rates, current account, foreign exchange reserves, stock prices, real exchange rate, and export growth will be examined in the work.
Tusks of Research:
- to study the conception of financial crisis in economics;
- to give a notion of the financial crisis of 1998 in Russia;
- to study the causes of the financial crisis of 1998 in Russia;
- to give characteristics of the financial crisis of 1998 in Russia;
- to describe the process of the development of the financial crisis of 1998 in Russia;
- to work out recommendations on regulation techniques of the financial cri-sis.
The theoretical base of research composed the following works.
While the different types of crises could range from "garden variety" currency crises to rather esoteric real estate bubbles, studies of such crises exhibit empirical and theoretical commonalties which will be highlighted below (for types of crises, see IMF World Economic Outlook, 1998). Also, these crises can have significant so-cial costs as noted in Shabbir (1999).
In an attempt to note possible empirical regularities, Kaminsky et al (1998, Vol. 45, No 1) reviews about twenty-five relevant studies. Due to the disparate na-ture of the studies in terms of their methodologies and specifications, the overall em-pirical results do not provide "a clear-cut answer concerning the usefulness of each of the potential indicators of currency crisis".
Kaminsky et al (1998, 90) also presents an extension of previous work which employs the 'signals' approach to identifying and predicting currency crises. Based on empirical results for a sample of fifteen developing countries and five industrial ones during 1970-95, the authors report that the variables with the best track record in anticipating crises include output, exports, real exchange rate deviations, equity prices and the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves.
Epitomized by Krugman (1979, 99), the First Generation Models tend to focus on the role of economic and financial 'fundamentals' such as the unsustainable fiscal policies in the face of the fixed exchange rate as the major cause of an eventual cur-rency crisis. Given a fixed exchange rate regime, the persistent need to finance gov-ernment budget deficits through monetization would surely lead to a reduction in the international reserves held by the Central Bank.
Since such reserves are finite the speculative attack on the currency is the eventual outcome of this scenario. This rather simple model suggests certain 'funda-mental' imbalances such as the gradual decline in international reserves, growing budget and current account deficits, domestic credit growth, and gradual exchange rate overvaluation as the potential early warning indicators of speculative attacks.
The development of the so-called Second Generation Models of the currency crises were motivated by the EMS currency crisis in 1992-93 where some countries such as the UK and Spain suffered crises despite having adequate international re-serves, manageable domestic credit growth and non-monetized fiscal deficits - char-acteristics that ran counter to the necessary conditions asserted by the first generation models.
Obstfeld (1994, 190) and Krugman (1998, 67) addressed the concerns raised by these counter-examples. The main innovation of these Second Generation Models lies in identifying the role that the 'expectations' of the market agents may play in precipitating currency crises. These models allow for "multiple equilibria" and, under certain (generally untenable) circumstances of perfect information-based decision making, could argue that predicting crises may not be feasible due to the 'self-fulfilling' nature of the expectations of the crisis.
Finally, the Third Generation Models are based on the notion of 'contagion' where the mere occurrence of a crisis in one country increases the likelihood of a similar crisis elsewhere As described in Masson (1998, Working Paper 120), three related scenarios can be identified to represent the paradigm of contagion: 'mon-soonal effects', 'spillover effects' and 'pure contagion effects'.
The basis Resources of the analytical part of research includes:
- The Analytical Report & Macroeconomic Analysis by short-term fore-casting institute of economic forecasting of the Russian Academy of Science; de-scribes bank system of Russia per 1996-2000 and presents models of functioning, the tendency, prospect of development
- The World Economic Outlook Review (1998) presents the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many indi-vidual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analy-sis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF’s global surveillance activities.
- Financial Stability Review Financial Crisis Management Articles 1998 (1999). The Financial Stability Review is essentially aimed at financial sector players and observers, such as decision makers, academics and market participants. It reviews developments affecting financial institutions, markets and their infrastruc-tures from a cyclical and structural perspective.
- The annual report of the Central Bank of Russia (1998).
The transformation of financial systems has highlighted several potential sources of instability, such as financial bubbles, bouts of market volatility and changes in the allocation of risk between participants. At the very heart of the finan-cial system, central banks play a decisive role in preserving its stability. For this rea-son, they carry out a thorough analysis of the soundness of the financial system's various components, based on a close dialogue with its main relevant players.
Aimed at encouraging analysis and exchanges of views, the Financial Stability Review is divided into two parts. The overview provides a detailed account of recent developments in the international environment and the financial system addresses fi-nancial vulnerabilities and sheds light on the initiatives designed to enhance financial stability.
Hypothesis of research: Can we state that political crisis in complex with macroeconomical factors initiated the financial crisis in Russia of 1998? What factor was more essential?
Structure of Research. The given research includes presentation, introduc-tion, two chapters (theoretical and analytical ones), conclusion, list of references and appendix.
Analysis part was devoted to studying of all the questions enlightened the main characteristics of the financial crisis in economics; the basic features of finan-cial crisis of Russian economy in 1998; the state of the Russian economy in 1998, of the bank system and inner market state.
The research examined the default identifications in 1998 in bank system and causes of financial crisis of Russian economy in 1998.
In Conclusion the lessons from the situation of Russian default of 1998 will be identified.

METHODOLOGY

Methodology of research embraces the following stages:
1. Statement of theory of hypothesis.
2. Obtaining the data:
a) Primary data (interviews, periodical materials); (Appendix 2)
b) Analytical foundation (statistics, analytical reports). (List of resources)
The tested 10 indicators are selected on the basis of currency crisis theories and further empirical literature. In addition to the traditional macroeconomic vari-ables, we include several indicators describing the vulnerability of domestic banks. These indicators include the growth of bank deposits, the ratio of the lending rate to the deposit rate, and the ratio of bank reserves to assets.
We also employ variables that indicate vulnerability to a sudden stop of capital inflows. These variables are public debt, broad money to reserves, and private sector liabilities.
3. Estimation of the parameters of the data. The basic tool for this purpose is served by the financial analysis, through which it is possible objectively to estimate the internal and external attitudes of analyzed object.
As it was mentioned earlier, the recent efforts at devising an early warning system for an impending financial crisis have taken the form of two related ap-proaches.
The first approach estimates a probit or logit model of the occurrence of a cri-sis with lagged values of early warning indicators as explanatory variables. This ap-proach requires the construction of a crisis dummy variable that serves as the en-dogenous variable in the probit or logit regression. Classification of each sample time point as being in crisis or not depends on whether or not a specific index of vul-nerability exceeds an arbitrarily chosen threshold.
For example, for currency crises, the index of vulnerability is sometimes based on a weighted average of percentage changes in nominal exchange rates, gross inter-national reserves and short-term interest rate differentials (e.g. local versus US rates when dealing with crises in the Philippines).
Explanatory variables typically would be variables in the real sector of the economy, financial variables, external sector and fiscal variables. This approach has the advantage of providing a framework for statistically measuring the magnitude and significance of the effects of various potential explanatory variables on the onset of a crisis. The estimated model also allows the estimation of the probability of oc-currence of a crisis in

Диплом Дефолт в России ФРАГМЕНТЫ ДЛЯ ОЗНАКОМЛЕНИЯ

  Работа будет доступна сразу после оплаты!